If you're expecting a lull in tropical activity now that Debby has essentially disappeared — although its remnants are still bringing rain to portions of the Northeast — you may be disappointed.
And if you're counting on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season to stick within its historical averages on the number of storms and when most occur, you might be dismayed.
But you better be prepared.
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That's the advice given repeatedly by NOAA, the National Hurricane Center, AccuWeather and Colorado State University.
Here's what you should know.
When is the peak of hurricane season and what's the average number of storms?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The peak of the season runs from mid-August through mid-October, with the peak coming Sept. 10.
An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
A major hurricane has sustained winds of at least 111 mph, so Category 3, 4 and 5 storms are considered major hurricanes.
NOAA updates hurricane season forecast
NOAAupdated its predictionfor the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season Thursday, Aug. 8, more than two months and four named storms after itsfirst prediction was released in May.
This season could "rank among the busiest on record," NOAA announced, while decreasing its prediction on the number of named storms slightly lower but increasing the chance for anabove-normal season to 90%.
Here's the latest forecast:
- Named storms: 17-24
- Hurricanes: 8-13
- Major hurricanes: 4-7
- Above normal season: 90%
- Near normal season: 10%
Countdown clock: When will 2024 hurricane season end?
The last day of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Nov. 30, and activity generally slows down after mid-October. Don't count on that this year.
This season could "rank among the busiest on record," NOAA said in its August forecast. So far, there have been four named storms: two hurricane and two tropical storms. With NOAA's forecast calling for 17 to 24 storms, that's a lot of storms remaining in the season.
That leaves another 13 to 20 named storms possible before conditions change, making tropical cyclones less likely to develop this year. Over the next 112 days, that's almost one storm every 5.5 days if there's one between now and Nov. 30, using NOAA's forecast.
AccuWeather and and Colorado State University also are predicting the number of storms could be higher than average, with AccuWeather predicting this season has the potential to break the all-time recordof 30 named storms in one season.
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November could see 'distinct possibility of elevated activity'
"August through November will be busier than normal," said Matt Rosencrans, NOAA's lead hurricane seasonal forecaster, in a telephone interview Friday, Aug. 9.
"Many busy seasons are busy because of late October and November remaining busy," "There's a distinct possibility (this year) of elevated activity into November.
"People should be prepared for the entirety of hurricane season. The season doesn't end until Nov. 30. Prepare now," Rosencrans said.
How many tropical cyclones have occurred between November and January?
Over the past 10 years, there have been 14 named storms between November and January, including
- Subtropical storm, unnamed: Jan. 16-17, 2023.
- Hurricane Nicole: Nov. 7-11, 2022. Landfall Nov. 10 south of Vero Beach as a Category 1 storm.
- Hurricane Martin: Nov. 1-3, 2022.
- Hurricane Lisa: Oct. 31-Nov. 5, 2022.
- Tropical Storm Wanda: Oct. 30-Nov. 7, 2021.
- Major Hurricane Eta: Oct. 31-Nov. 13, 2020.
- Tropical Storm Theta: Nov. 10-15, 2020.
- Major Hurricane Iota: Nov. 13-18, 2020.
- Sub-Tropical Storm Rebekah: Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2019.
- Tropical Storm Sebastien: Nov. 19-24, 2019.
- Tropical Storm Rina: Nov. 5-9, 2017.
- Hurricane Alex: Jan. 12-15, 2016.
- Major Hurricane Otto: Nov. 20-26, 2016.
- Hurricane Kate: Nov. 8-11, 2015.
'More storms are coming; Don't wait.' Prepare hurricane kit now
Florida's second and final two-week sales tax holiday for hurricane supplies will run from Aug. 24 through Sept. 6.
Rosencrans advised residents not to wait.
"August through November will be busier than normal. Prepare right now as if a storm could happen next week. Don't wait until Sept. 1."
"We are not expecting a lull after Debby. I wish they can wait (until the tax holiday) but more storms are coming, a lot more. Nothing in the environment has changed."
What's happening in the tropics right now?
A tropical wave approaching the Caribbean Sea had a 60% chance of development as of Aug. 9.
Conditions are expected to become more conducive for development while the wave moves west-northwestward, and a tropical depression could form by early next week as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles.
August tropical hazards outlook from Climate Prediction Center
The Climate Prediction Center said there is a 40 percent to 60 percent chance of tropical development over the next two weeks.
"Numerous factors appear to be coming together ... with a potential for several tropical cyclones to form" between Aug. 14 and Aug. 27, according to the Climate Prediction Center, which set the chances at 60%.
Where and when a system could develop depends on the week and which model you look at. Residents "across the eastern US, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean should refer to the National Hurricane Center for official track forecasts once any system has developed," the Climate Prediction Center said.
What's happening with La Niña?
There's a 66% chance of La Niña developing from September to November, Rosencrans said. That's slightly later than earlier predictions of the onset August to October.
"La Niña typically increases Atlantic hurricane activity," Colorado State forecasters said. La Niña lacks thewind shear associated with El Niñothat helps tear apart developing storms or keep others from intensifying.
